How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Apr 18, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability represents the chance that initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18, 2026 will fall within a specific range. The prediction reflects current labor market conditions and expectations about employment trends. Market participants are split on this outcome, with Kalshi traders pricing it 10 percentage points higher than Polymarket traders, suggesting some disagreement about baseline employment stability. The final claims number will be released by the Department of Labor on a scheduled date, providing the definitive resolution. Key factors driving this probability include recent monthly employment reports, broader economic growth trends, and seasonal adjustments that typically apply to weekly claims data. Any significant shift in business hiring patterns or economic shocks would alter the probability materially.

• ›The actual weekly jobless claims figure released by the Department of Labor will determine the outcome; the data point has a precise, verifiable value
• ›Seasonal adjustment patterns for mid-April historically show typical volatility ranges that frame baseline expectations
• ›Recent monthly employment reports and hiring trends in the weeks prior would signal whether claims are likely to trend higher or lower than the baseline
• ›The 10 percentage point gap between venues suggests material disagreement about which range is most likely, indicating genuine uncertainty among traders
• ›Economic data releases between now and the official publication date could shift expectations about labor market conditions

Recently closed in general

• What will James Talarico say during 2026 Texas Democratic Convention - Friday General Sessionlast 87% · 1d
• Will Claire Valdez be victorious in the NY-07 Democratic primary AND Brad Lander be victorious in the NY-10 Democratic primary AND Darializa Avila Chevalier be defeated in the NY-13 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 69% · 3d
• Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be victorious in the NY-13 Democratic primary AND Alex Bores be defeated in the NY-12 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 37% · 4d
• Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primarylast 97% · 8d
• Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 9d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds