How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending Apr 18, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability represents the chance that initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18, 2026 will fall within a specific range. The prediction reflects current labor market conditions and expectations about employment trends. Market participants are split on this outcome, with Kalshi traders pricing it 10 percentage points higher than Polymarket traders, suggesting some disagreement about baseline employment stability. The final claims number will be released by the Department of Labor on a scheduled date, providing the definitive resolution. Key factors driving this probability include recent monthly employment reports, broader economic growth trends, and seasonal adjustments that typically apply to weekly claims data. Any significant shift in business hiring patterns or economic shocks would alter the probability materially.

• ›The actual weekly jobless claims figure released by the Department of Labor will determine the outcome; the data point has a precise, verifiable value
• ›Seasonal adjustment patterns for mid-April historically show typical volatility ranges that frame baseline expectations
• ›Recent monthly employment reports and hiring trends in the weeks prior would signal whether claims are likely to trend higher or lower than the baseline
• ›The 10 percentage point gap between venues suggests material disagreement about which range is most likely, indicating genuine uncertainty among traders
• ›Economic data releases between now and the official publication date could shift expectations about labor market conditions

What moved the line

• May 2At least 175000↓60pp68→8¢ · Kalshi
• May 2At least 170000↓58pp67→9¢ · Kalshi
• May 2At least 165000↓53pp64→11¢ · Kalshi
• May 1At least 185000↑42pp40→82¢ · Kalshi
• May 1At least 180000↑40pp49→89¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds