Will the maximum temperature be 63-64° on Apr 21, 2026

Analysis

This probability reflects the chance that the maximum temperature will fall within the 63-64°F range on April 21, 2026 at a specified location. The current 38% level suggests this outcome is considered less likely than alternatives, possibly because late April weather typically produces higher temperatures or because historical patterns for that date favor different ranges. The main drivers are seasonal temperature norms for late spring and any emerging climate patterns that might shift April conditions warmer or cooler than average. The resolution will occur on April 21, 2026, when actual maximum temperature data becomes available. Until then, the probability may shift if longer-range forecasts are issued or if patterns similar to the target date emerge in preceding weeks.

• ›Historical maximum temperatures for April 21 at the target location compared to the 63-64°F range
• ›Seasonal warming trajectory in late April relative to earlier spring months
• ›Current market pricing across four contracts suggests the 63-64°F band ranks third or fourth among competing outcomes
• ›Distance to resolution date (approximately 10.5 months away) limits availability of actionable weather forecasts
• ›Runner-up contract at 31% indicates at least one competing temperature range is viewed as notably more probable

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds