Will the minimum temperature be <42° on Apr 22, 2026
Leader sits at 35% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 33%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
46° to 47°
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
33¢
48° to 49°
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
May 9, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the minimum temperature
Will the minimum temperature be 42-43° on May 9, 2026?: 42° to 43°
KXLOWTMIN-26MAY09-B42.5
Will the minimum temperature be >49° on May 9, 2026?: 50° or above
KXLOWTMIN-26MAY09-T49
Will the minimum temperature be 48-49° on May 9, 2026?: 48° to 49°
KXLOWTMIN-26MAY09-B48.5
Will the minimum temperature be 44-45° on May 9, 2026?: 44° to 45°
KXLOWTMIN-26MAY09-B44.5
Will the minimum temperature be 46-47° on May 9, 2026?: 46° to 47°
KXLOWTMIN-26MAY09-B46.5
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In climate
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.