Mike Johnson out as Speaker by...
Leader sits at 32% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 9%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31, 2026
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
9¢
June 30, 2026
Spread
23pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
241 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by
Analysis
This 28% probability indicates traders assess a roughly one-in-four chance that Speaker Mike Johnson loses his position before a specified date. The forecast reflects ongoing political fragmentation in the House, where Johnson has faced pressure from both moderate Republicans seeking compromise on spending and conservatives demanding ideological purity. His narrow majority and previous challenges securing votes on key legislation have created vulnerability. The probability would likely rise if major policy votes fail, if a significant bloc of Republicans formally calls for his ouster, or if party leadership signals reduced support. The primary driver of resolution will be whether House Republicans can maintain cohesion through the remainder of 2026, particularly around budget negotiations and any leadership challenges that emerge during campaign season.
- ›Johnson's razor-thin majority requires near-unanimous Republican support on contentious votes, making defections a recurring risk factor
- ›Historical precedent: three Speakers have been removed via motion to vacate since 2015, establishing that removal is a viable political tool
- ›The timing of major fiscal deadlines and appropriations negotiations in late 2026 will test party unity and generate leverage for potential challengers
- ›Midterm campaign dynamics may create incentives for factional challenges if party performance appears weak or if primary battles emerge
- ›Current market pricing at 28% versus 19% on Polymarket suggests modest disagreement about removal probability across trading venues
What moved the line
- May 1December 31, 2026↓26pp69→43¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28June 30, 2026↑15pp6→21¢ · Polymarket
- May 2December 31, 2026↓14pp43→29¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29June 30, 2026↓14pp21→7¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28December 31, 2026↑12pp38→50¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (32% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.