SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·5 source contracts·Polymarket 5·refreshed just now·Closes Sep 28, 2026 · 123d

MLB: RBIs Leader

Leader sits at 20% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

20%

RBIs Leader: Aaron Judge

runner-up 8¢leader 20¢

Outcomes

5

winner-take-all

Runner-up

RBIs Leader: Kyle Schwarber

Spread

12pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

Sep 28, 2026

123 days

Venue

Polymarket

5 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayRBIs Leader: Aaron Judge: 20% (8 days, 4 points)RBIs Leader: Aaron Judge: 20% on 2026-05-21RBIs Leader: Kyle Schwarber: 8% on 2026-05-22RBIs Leader: Nico Hoerner: 5% (8 days, 7 points)RBIs Leader: Nico Hoerner: 5% on 2026-05-23
RBIs Leader: Aaron Judge20¢RBIs Leader: Kyle Schwarber8¢RBIs Leader: Nico Hoerner5¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 8d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Recently closed in sports

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.