Will FOX MLB
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 22% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
22%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+3pp
12h ago
24h volume
$7K
19 contracts
Closes
May 27, 2027
389 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
18 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 5% of their title tokens — “Will FOX MLB” vs “Will 151st Kentucky Derby win the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards for Outstanding Live Sports Special: Non-Championship Event”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will FOX MLB
Will FOX MLB: The 95th All-Star Game win the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards for Outstanding Live Sports Special: Non-Championship Event?: FOX MLB: The 95th All-Star Game
KXSPORTSEMMY-26OLSSNCE-FOX
Will FOX MLB: World Series win the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards for Outstanding Live Sports Special: Championship Event?: FOX MLB: World Series
KXSPORTSEMMY-26OLSSCE-FOX
Cluster 2
Will 151st Kentucky Derby win the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards for Outstanding Live Sports Special: Non-Championship Event
Cluster 3
Will NHL on ESPN win the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards for Outstanding Live Sports Special: Non-Championship Event
Cluster 4
Will Monsters Funday Football win the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards for Outstanding Live Sports Special: Non-Championship Event
Cluster 5
Will NHL in ASL win the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards for Outstanding Live Sports Special: Non-Championship Event
Cluster 6
Will Sunday Night Football win the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards for Outstanding Live Sports Series
Cluster 7
Will Monday Night Football win the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards for Outstanding Live Sports Series
Cluster 8
Will NBA Finals win the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards for Outstanding Live Sports Special: Championship Event
Cluster 9
Will League of Legends Worlds 2025 Final win the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards for Outstanding ESports Championship Coverage
Cluster 10
Will NBA Today win the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards for Outstanding Sports Studio Show: Daily
Cluster 11
Will Allen Iv3rson win the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards for Outstanding Sports Documentary Series
Cluster 12
Will The Pat McAfee Show win the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards for Outstanding Sports Studio Show: Daily
Cluster 13
Will SportsCenter win the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards for Outstanding Sports Studio Show: Daily
Cluster 14
Will Formula 1: Drive to Survive win the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards for Outstanding Sports Documentary Series: Serialized
Cluster 15
Will NFL LIVE win the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards for Outstanding Sports Studio Show: Daily
Cluster 16
Will NFL Films Presents win the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards for Outstanding Edited Sports Series: Hosted
Cluster 17
Will NFL Game Day All Access win the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards for Outstanding Edited Sports Event Coverage
Cluster 18
Will Alex vs. ARod win the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards for Outstanding Sports Documentary Series
Analysis
This market asks whether FOX's broadcast of the 95th MLB All-Star Game will win a Sports Emmy Award in the Outstanding Live Sports Special category for non-championship events. The current 19% probability reflects a competitive field where many networks produce high-quality sports broadcasts annually, making any single program's Emmy chances modest. The probability is driven primarily by the perceived quality and viewership of the specific All-Star Game broadcast compared to other eligible productions that year, and by historical Emmy voting patterns in this category. The resolution will occur when the Sports Emmy Awards are announced in 2026, which will definitively determine whether this broadcast receives the award. Factors affecting the outcome include production quality, viewership metrics, competing broadcasts, voting academy preferences, and any technical or on-air incidents that might influence Emmy voters' perception of the broadcast.
- ›Historical Emmy win rates for MLB All-Star Game broadcasts show infrequent wins in this specific category, establishing a baseline below 50%
- ›The market faces direct competition from other major sports broadcasts in the same category throughout the calendar year
- ›Viewership and production quality metrics from the actual All-Star Game broadcast will influence voting outcomes
- ›Emmy voting typically weighs production values, innovation, and cultural impact alongside pure ratings performance
- ›The specific Emmy category for non-championship events receives numerous eligible submissions, diluting any single entry's relative advantage
What moved the line
- May 2Non-Championship Event?: NHL on ESPN↓26pp54→28¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Non-Championship Event?: 151st Kentucky Derby↑14pp10→24¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Non-Championship Event?: NHL on ESPN↑10pp28→38¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Non-Championship Event?: 151st Kentucky Derby↑6pp24→30¢ · Kalshi
- May 3The 95th All-Star Game win the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards for Outstanding Live Sports Special: Non-Championship Event?: FOX MLB: The 95th All-Star Game↓6pp10→4¢ · Kalshi
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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