Will Eli Willits play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2028
Leader sits at 70% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 61%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Nov 1, 2029
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
61¢
Before May 1, 2029
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$92
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 1, 2029
1253 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Eli Willits play in a game for any team in the MLB before
Will Eli Willits play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2029?: Before Nov 1, 2029
KXMLBDEBUT-EWILLITS-29NOV01
Will Eli Willits play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2028?: Before Nov 1, 2028
KXMLBDEBUT-EWILLITS-28NOV01
Will Eli Willits play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2027?: Before Nov 1, 2027
KXMLBDEBUT-EWILLITS-27NOV01
Will Eli Willits play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2028?: Before Aug 1, 2028
KXMLBDEBUT-EWILLITS-28AUG01
Will Eli Willits play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2029?: Before Aug 1, 2029
KXMLBDEBUT-EWILLITS-29AUG01
Will Eli Willits play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2029?: Before May 1, 2029
KXMLBDEBUT-EWILLITS-29MAY01
Will Eli Willits play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2027?: Before Aug 1, 2027
KXMLBDEBUT-EWILLITS-27AUG01
Will Eli Willits play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2028?: Before May 1, 2028
KXMLBDEBUT-EWILLITS-28MAY01
What moved the line
- May 27Before May 1, 2028↓41pp48→7¢ · Kalshi
- May 24Before May 1, 2029↓35pp68→33¢ · Kalshi
- May 21Before May 1, 2029↓34pp58→24¢ · Kalshi
- May 24Before Aug 1, 2029↓33pp67→34¢ · Kalshi
- May 22Before May 1, 2029↑31pp24→55¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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