Will Thomas White play in a game for any team in the MLB before Oct 1, 2026
Leader sits at 62% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 43%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Oct 1, 2026
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
43¢
Before Nov 1, 2027
Spread
19pp
contested
24h volume
$12
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 1, 2027
522 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Thomas White play in a game for any team in the MLB before
Will Thomas White play in a game for any team in the MLB before Jul 13, 2026?: Before Jul 13, 2026
KXMLBDEBUT-TWHITE-26JUL13
Will Thomas White play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026
KXMLBDEBUT-TWHITE-26AUG01
Will Thomas White play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2027?: Before Nov 1, 2027
KXMLBDEBUT-TWHITE-27NOV01
Will Thomas White play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2027?: Before May 1, 2027
KXMLBDEBUT-TWHITE-27MAY01
Will Thomas White play in a game for any team in the MLB before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXMLBDEBUT-TWHITE-26SEP01
Will Thomas White play in a game for any team in the MLB before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXMLBDEBUT-TWHITE-26OCT01
Will Thomas White play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXMLBDEBUT-TWHITE-26NOV01
What moved the line
- May 22Before Nov 1, 2027↓67pp74→7¢ · Kalshi
- May 22Before Nov 1, 2026↓55pp68→13¢ · Kalshi
- May 26Before May 1, 2027↓39pp45→6¢ · Kalshi
- May 25Before May 1, 2027↓38pp83→45¢ · Kalshi
- May 23Before Nov 1, 2026↑33pp13→46¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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