SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·7 source contracts·Kalshi 7·refreshed just now·Closes Nov 1, 2027 · 522d

Will Walker Jenkins play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2026

Leader sits at 84% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 34%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

84%

Before Nov 1, 2027

runner-up 34¢leader 84¢

Outcomes

7

winner-take-all

Runner-up

34¢

Before Nov 1, 2026

Spread

50pp

dominant leader

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

Nov 1, 2027

522 days

Venue

Kalshi

7 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayBefore Nov 1, 2027: 75% (19 days, 15 points)Before Nov 1, 2027: 75% on 2026-05-24Before Nov 1, 2026: 16% (19 days, 18 points)Before Nov 1, 2026: 16% on 2026-05-26Before Sep 1, 2026: 6% (19 days, 17 points)Before Sep 1, 2026: 6% on 2026-05-27
Before Nov 1, 202775¢Before Nov 1, 202616¢Before Sep 1, 20266¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 19d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This 3% probability estimates a low likelihood that Walker Jenkins will play in an MLB game before November 1, 2026—roughly 5 months from today. The extremely low price reflects either Jenkins' status as a minor-league prospect with limited roster access, injury concerns, or general distance from MLB competition as of mid-May 2026. The probability would move higher if Jenkins receives a call-up to a major-league roster or lower if he is reassigned or remains in the minor leagues. The season timeline through October matters significantly, as teams' late-season roster decisions in September could create opportunities, though demand for immediate playing time appears minimal given current market pricing.

  • Jenkins' current roster status as of May 2026 and whether he holds a spot on any MLB team's 26-man active roster or has a path to one
  • Historical pace of call-ups and playing time for prospects in his organizational position during the remainder of the 2026 season
  • Team roster construction and injury needs between now and late October that might require roster additions or replacements
  • Any announced trades, releases, or organizational moves involving Jenkins between May and November 2026
  • Comparative pricing across the three-contract structure (all at 3%) suggesting market consensus that playing time before Nov 1, 2026 is similarly unlikely as before May 1, 2027

What moved the line

  • May 21Before Nov 1, 202751pp6615¢ · Kalshi
  • May 26Before Nov 1, 202646pp6216¢ · Kalshi
  • May 27Before May 1, 202744pp484¢ · Kalshi
  • May 21Before Nov 1, 202638pp446¢ · Kalshi
  • May 22Before May 1, 202736pp5923¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in sports

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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