Top US Netflix Movie on Apr 27, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 19 contracts. Kalshi at 13%, Polymarket at 71% — a 58pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
17 contracts
Polymarket
71%
2 contracts
Cross-venue gap
58pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$61K
19 contracts
Top contract
6¢
$29K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 13¢ · Polymarket 71¢ · 58pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (13¢, 17 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (71¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
6 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Top Global Netflix” vs “#2 Global Netflix Movie on May 4, 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Top Global Netflix
Top Global Netflix Show on May 4, 2026?: Man on Fire: Season 1
KXNETFLIXRANKSHOWGLOBAL-26MAY04-MAN
Top Global Netflix Show on May 4, 2026?: Unchosen: Season 1
KXNETFLIXRANKSHOWGLOBAL-26MAY04-UNC
Top Global Netflix Movie on May 4, 2026?: 180
KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIEGLOBAL-26MAY04-180
Top Global Netflix Show on May 4, 2026?: Running Point: Season 2
KXNETFLIXRANKSHOWGLOBAL-26MAY04-RUN
Top Global Netflix Show on May 4, 2026?: Trust Me: The False Prophet: Season 1
KXNETFLIXRANKSHOWGLOBAL-26MAY04-TRU
Cluster 2
#2 Global Netflix Movie on May 4, 2026
#2 Global Netflix Movie on May 4, 2026?: Apex
KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIEGLOBAL2-26MAY04-APE
#2 Global Netflix Movie on May 4, 2026?: 180
KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIEGLOBAL2-26MAY04-180
#2 Global Netflix Movie on May 4, 2026?: Minions: The Rise of Gru
KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIEGLOBAL2-26MAY04-MIN
#2 Global Netflix Movie on May 4, 2026?: Thrash
KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIEGLOBAL2-26MAY04-THR
Cluster 3
#2 US Netflix Movie on May 4, 2026
#2 US Netflix Movie on May 4, 2026?: Roommates
KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIERUNNERUP-26MAY04-ROO
#2 US Netflix Movie on May 4, 2026?: Swapped
KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIERUNNERUP-26MAY04-SWA
#2 US Netflix Movie on May 4, 2026?: Untold: The Shooting at Hawthorne Hill
KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIERUNNERUP-26MAY04-UNT
Cluster 4
Will KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film) be the #
Will KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film) be the #1 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film)
KXTOPALBUMSPOTIFY-26-KPO
Will KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film) be the #1 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film)
KXTOPALBUMSPOTIFYUSA-26-KPO
Will KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film) be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film)
KXTOPALBUMTHIRDUSA-26-KPO
Cluster 5
Top US Netflix Show on May 4, 2026
Cluster 6
Which 2026 movies will make it into the IMDb Top 250
What moved the line
- May 3Swapped↑40pp48→88¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Swapped↑39pp9→48¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Man on Fire: Season 1↑35pp26→61¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Avengers: Doomsday↑19pp54→73¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30Man on Fire: Season 1↑18pp12→30¢ · Kalshi
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In entertainment
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 48 min ago.