Western Conference Finals Winner
Leader sits at 57% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 27%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Colorado Avalanche
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
27¢
Vegas Golden Knights
Spread
30pp
contested
24h volume
$121K
liquid
Closes
Jul 15, 2026
72 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Western Conference Finals Winner
Western Conference Finals Winner?: Colorado Avalanche
KXNHLWEST-26-COL
Western Conference Finals Winner?: Minnesota Wild
KXNHLWEST-26-MIN
Western Conference Finals Winner?: Vegas Golden Knights
KXNHLWEST-26-VGK
Western Conference Finals Winner?: Anaheim Ducks
KXNHLWEST-26-ANA
Analysis
The Colorado Avalanche are currently favored at 47% to win the 2026 NBA Western Conference Finals, reflecting market views on their roster strength and playoff positioning. Trading volume and price distribution across contracts show significant uncertainty, with Oklahoma City at 66 cents on a separate contract indicating disagreement between market structures. The probability would shift based on injury status of key players, playoff seeding outcomes, and team performance through the postseason. The Western Conference Finals themselves will resolve this question definitively once the matchup occurs in May-June 2026, at which point actual playoff results will eliminate speculation about team capabilities.
- ›Colorado's 47% price reflects current roster health and regular-season performance; major injuries to star players would likely move this probability down materially
- ›Oklahoma City's 66-cent price on a direct comparison contract indicates the market sees meaningful win probability there, yet Colorado trades higher, suggesting structure-dependent valuation or different contract specifications
- ›Los Angeles is priced at only 3 cents despite having the highest 24-hour trading volume ($284k), suggesting either different contract language or low perceived championship probability
- ›Playoff seeding and matchup composition are not yet determined, leaving path-dependent factors unresolved that could shift probabilities as the postseason approaches
- ›Vegas Golden Knights at 27% represent the second-highest probability on this specific contract, but the 20-point spread from Colorado suggests clear separation between top contenders
What moved the line
- May 1Vegas Golden Knights↑6pp14→20¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29Minnesota Wild↑5pp8→13¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Minnesota Wild↑5pp14→19¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Colorado Avalanche↑4pp47→51¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Colorado Avalanche↓4pp51→47¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.