Zurich Classic of New Orleans
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 35%, Polymarket at 26% — a 9pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
35%
14 contracts
Polymarket
26%
6 contracts
Cross-venue gap
9pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$639
20 contracts
Top contract
28¢
$504 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 35¢ · Polymarket 26¢ · 9pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (26¢, 6 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (35¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
9 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Will the New Orleans pro football team win at least” vs “Pro Football”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the New Orleans pro football team win at least
Will the New Orleans pro football team win at least 10 games this season?: 10+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27NO-10
Will the New Orleans pro football team win at least 9 games this season?: 9+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27NO-9
Will the New Orleans pro football team win at least 5 games this season?: 5+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27NO-5
Will the New Orleans pro football team win at least 12 games this season?: 12+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27NO-12
Will the New Orleans pro football team win at least 7 games this season?: 7+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27NO-7
Will the New Orleans pro football team win at least 6 games this season?: 6+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27NO-6
Will the New Orleans pro football team win at least 3 games this season?: 3+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27NO-3
Will the New Orleans pro football team win at least 2 games this season?: 2+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27NO-2
Will the New Orleans pro football team win at least 8 games this season?: 8+ wins
KXNFLWINS-27NO-8
Cluster 2
Pro Football
Cluster 3
Will New Orleans
Cluster 4
NBA: Giannis Antetokounmpo Next Team: New Orleans Pelicans
NBA: Giannis Antetokounmpo Next Team: New Orleans Pelicans
0x406332…c750
Cluster 5
NBA: LeBron James Next Team: New Orleans Pelicans
NBA: LeBron James Next Team: New Orleans Pelicans
0xd66ba2…b0ad
Cluster 6
Where will George Pickens play in 2026-27
Where will George Pickens play in 2026-27?: New Orleans Saints
0x86b5ac…dafb
Cluster 7
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team
What will be Kayvon Thibodeaux's next team?: New Orleans
KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26KTHIBODEAUX5-NO
Cluster 8
Where will Joey Bosa play in 2026-27
Where will Joey Bosa play in 2026-27?: New Orleans Saints
0x71548a…acad
Cluster 9
Who will be the next Head Coach of the New Orleans
Who will be the next Head Coach of the New Orleans?: James Borrego
KXNEXTNBACOACH-NOP26-JBOR
What moved the line
- May 3Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: New Orleans Saints↓29pp39→10¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 276+ wins↑28pp33→61¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 267+ wins↑25pp24→49¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 279+ wins↑21pp13→34¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28New Orleans Saints↑19pp31→50¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 h ago.