Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
20%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+1pp
11h ago
24h volume
$457K
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
27 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
0x518a5b…333c
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal operational levels by May 31, 2026. At 19%, the market is pricing in significant skepticism about near-term recovery. The current low probability likely reflects ongoing disruptions to transit patterns, whether from geopolitical tensions, security incidents, or infrastructure constraints that typically take weeks to resolve. The main drivers of this probability are the actual daily transit call volumes reported by IMF PortWatch, which will determine whether traffic meets baseline normal levels before month-end. Related markets show a notable probability gradient: only 5% chance of 60+ daily transits by May 15, rising to 38% by July 1, suggesting markets expect gradual improvement rather than rapid normalization. The critical data points arriving through May will be the weekly transit call averages, which serve as the operational measure of whether conditions have truly stabilized.
- ›Daily transit call volume through May 3-31 as reported by IMF PortWatch; currently tracking below 60 calls per day based on related market pricing
- ›Geopolitical or security incidents affecting shipping routes or chokepoint access during May; any escalation would extend disruption timelines
- ›Infrastructure or port capacity constraints that persist beyond typical recovery windows; these determine the baseline for what constitutes 'normal'
- ›The definition of 'normal' traffic levels used by market settlers, which appears calibrated to approximately 60+ transit calls daily based on related Kalshi contract pricing
- ›Time decay effect: with only 28 days remaining in May as of today, there is limited window for conditions to stabilize and data to confirm normalization
What moved the line
- Apr 30Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?↓9pp33→24¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?↓8pp41→33¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 27Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?↑4pp35→39¢ · Polymarket
- May 1Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?↓3pp24→21¢ · Polymarket
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (20% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In iran
Related reading
Iran Military Operations Continue — Regime Stability at 8¢ for June, Oil Disruption Ongoing
The US military campaign against Iran continues with near-zero odds of operations ending in April (2¢) and only 33¢ for May. The Iranian regime itself is priced at 8¢ to fall by June 30, and Kharg Island seizure is at 12¢ for May 31. The Hormuz disruption is the key transmission mechanism to global markets.
Strait of Hormuz Normalization Reprices: May Contract Jumps +5¢ as Iran Tensions Evolve
The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by end of May jumped +5¢ to 39¢ while the April contract expired at 0¢. This repricing suggests traders see meaningful probability of a US-Iran deal or de-escalation within the next month, with direct oil market implications.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.