Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by June 5?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
3%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$211
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
18 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by June 5
Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by June 5?: 275M
0x2db76f…844f
Analysis
The 85% probability indicates market participants believe U.S. crude oil reserves will fall below 375 million barrels by June 5, 2026. This represents expectations of continued drawdowns from current levels, driven by factors including seasonal demand patterns, refinery utilization rates, and global supply dynamics. The probability reflects a strong consensus but with meaningful minority positions at lower price thresholds ($140–$200), suggesting some uncertainty about the magnitude of reserve changes. The main driver pushing this probability would be actual weekly EIA inventory reports released each Wednesday through early June, which report crude stock changes and typically move trading activity. A sustained production outage, demand surge, or significant import disruption could shift market expectations materially over the next month.
- ›Weekly EIA crude oil inventory reports (Wednesdays through June 5) will provide hard data on reserve levels; each report has historically moved forward contracts 1–3%
- ›Seasonal spring driving demand and refinery turnaround scheduling typically increase crude draws; deviation from historical April–May patterns would invalidate baseline assumptions
- ›Current contract volume concentration ($20k+ on $200 target) suggests large traders are positioned for volatility, indicating asymmetric tail-risk pricing rather than consensus conviction
- ›Geopolitical supply shocks (production outages, export disruptions) would rapidly reprice all outcomes; current pricing assumes baseline production stability
- ›The 50¢ price on the $80 downside outcome indicates ~2% probability of substantial reserve builds, reflecting low but non-zero tail risk from demand destruction or supply surge
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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In oil
Related reading
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The probability of crude oil (WTI) falling below $75 by end of June has skyrocketed 47 points to 89¢, with a 37% chance of hitting below $70. This is a direct response to the increased optimism around an Iran nuclear deal, which could bring significant Iranian oil supply back to the market.
Oil Traders Pivot to Bearish as Geopolitical Risk Premium Erodes
As the US-Iran peace deal narrative strengthens, oil markets are repricing lower. The probability of crude oil falling below $80 by end of June surged 17¢ to 81¢, while expectations for a rally above $120 collapsed. The VIX fell 4.41%, confirming a broader 'risk-on' shift that typically accompanies a reduction in geopolitical tensions.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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