Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by June 5?

30-day trend

Analysis

The 85% probability indicates market participants believe U.S. crude oil reserves will fall below 375 million barrels by June 5, 2026. This represents expectations of continued drawdowns from current levels, driven by factors including seasonal demand patterns, refinery utilization rates, and global supply dynamics. The probability reflects a strong consensus but with meaningful minority positions at lower price thresholds ($140–$200), suggesting some uncertainty about the magnitude of reserve changes. The main driver pushing this probability would be actual weekly EIA inventory reports released each Wednesday through early June, which report crude stock changes and typically move trading activity. A sustained production outage, demand surge, or significant import disruption could shift market expectations materially over the next month.

• ›Weekly EIA crude oil inventory reports (Wednesdays through June 5) will provide hard data on reserve levels; each report has historically moved forward contracts 1–3%
• ›Seasonal spring driving demand and refinery turnaround scheduling typically increase crude draws; deviation from historical April–May patterns would invalidate baseline assumptions
• ›Current contract volume concentration ($20k+ on $200 target) suggests large traders are positioned for volatility, indicating asymmetric tail-risk pricing rather than consensus conviction
• ›Geopolitical supply shocks (production outages, export disruptions) would rapidly reprice all outcomes; current pricing assumes baseline production stability
• ›The 50¢ price on the $80 downside outcome indicates ~2% probability of substantial reserve builds, reflecting low but non-zero tail risk from demand destruction or supply surge

How we compute these odds