WTI Oil Price

30-day trend

Analysis

Markets are pricing a 93% probability that WTI crude oil will settle above $71.99/barrel on June 22, 2026—two days from now. This high confidence reflects the narrow time window: with only 48 hours until settlement, price discovery is constrained by immediate supply-demand conditions and overnight trading activity rather than longer-term fundamentals. The probability's strength suggests traders expect the oil price to remain in a relatively stable range rather than experience a sharp selloff. The main downside risks would be unexpected inventory builds, demand-destruction signals, or geopolitical de-escalation. Upside catalysts would include supply disruptions or demand surprises. Since the settlement occurs in 2 days, the outcome depends primarily on the June 21-22 commodity market close and any economic data or policy announcements released in that window.

• ›The 93% probability reflects a very short settlement window (2 days), limiting exposure to major new information and anchoring price to current market levels
• ›High-volume contracts at $75.99 and $76.99 show most trader conviction in the $76+ range, while the $82.99 contract trades at only 7 cents, indicating low probability of sharp upside moves
• ›Kalshi's multi-outcome structure means this reflects relative confidence in the $71.99 band specifically versus lower thresholds, not an outright directional bet
• ›Overnight crude trading and any DOE inventory report released before June 22 settlement would be the primary catalysts for meaningful repricing
• ›The 48-hour timeframe essentially freezes longer-term supply and geopolitical factors out of the pricing equation

What moved the line

• Jul 17$83 or above↑6pp34→40¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 18$80 or above↑5pp44→49¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 17$82 or above↑5pp36→41¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 17$84 or above↑5pp33→38¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 17$87 or above↑5pp29→34¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds