What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in May 2026?
Leader sits at 16% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 7%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↑ $760
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
7¢
↓ $730
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$17K
liquid
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
4 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in May 2026
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that SPY will close below $730 by May 31, 2026. Markets are currently pricing in a roughly 27% chance that SPY closes at or above $750, with the remainder split between lower price levels. The dominant $730-or-lower outcome suggests traders expect modest downside or consolidation from current levels, though the 46-cent bid on the $750+ contract indicates meaningful support for a continued rally. Key drivers include macroeconomic data releases, Federal Reserve communications, and corporate earnings reports throughout May, with the month-end close on May 29, 2026 ultimately determining the resolution. Volatility and positioning ahead of that date will likely shift probabilities significantly based on inflation reports, employment figures, and Fed guidance.
- ›SPY's current price relative to $730 threshold—traders must assess whether present levels indicate upside or downside momentum into month-end
- ›24-hour volume concentration ($16.3K on the $750+ contract) suggests active disagreement about upside scenarios, indicating price discovery is ongoing
- ›The $730 contract trades at 73¢ versus nearby strikes at 46-47¢, showing a narrow range clustered around current support-resistance levels rather than wide dispersion
- ›May data calendar includes CPI release and PCE reports that historically move equities; absence of FOMC meetings in May reduces one source of potential volatility
- ›Distribution across nine outcomes without a clear second leader (47% runner-up) indicates uncertainty is genuine rather than consensus-driven
What moved the line
- May 21↓ $730↓26pp75→49¢ · Polymarket
- May 24↓ $730↓18pp33→15¢ · Polymarket
- May 24↑ $760↑11pp21→32¢ · Polymarket
- May 22↑ $760↑10pp13→23¢ · Polymarket
- May 22↓ $730↓9pp49→40¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (16% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In markets
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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