Which company has the third best AI model end of June
Leader sits at 52% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 25%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Anthropic
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
25¢
Spread
27pp
contested
24h volume
$44
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
52 days
Venue
Polymarket
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which company has the third best AI model end of June
Which company has the third best AI model end of June?: Z.ai
0xd5d0c2…d339
Which company has the third best AI model end of June?: DeepSeek
0xbc377c…7da4
Which company has the third best AI model end of June?: xAI
0x30a46f…c20b
Which company has the third best AI model end of June?: Baidu
0xe60955…b754
Which company has the third best AI model end of June?: Moonshot
0xf7fd4b…0375
Which company has the third best AI model end of June?: ByteDance
0x23c9f1…dbaf
Which company has the third best AI model end of June?: OpenAI
0xed7b46…ed4b
Which company has the third best AI model end of June?: Meta
0xba024d…6966
Which company has the third best AI model end of June?: Alibaba
0x5c13b9…5c48
Which company has the third best AI model end of June?: Google
0x9a410f…9203
Which company has the third best AI model end of June?: Anthropic
0x3c6ece…2c14
Which company has the third best AI model end of June?: Mistral
0x2063a8…3297
What moved the line
- May 8Baidu↓6pp24→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 7xAI↑5pp4→9¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Google↓4pp36→32¢ · Polymarket
- May 7OpenAI↓4pp22→18¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.