SimpleFunctions
AI & TechnologyWinner-take-all · 12 outcomes12 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 4 min agoCloses Jun 30, 2026 · 52d

Which company has the third best AI model end of June

Leader sits at 52% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 25%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

52%

Anthropic

runner-up 25¢leader 52¢

Outcomes

12

winner-take-all

Runner-up

25¢

Google

Spread

27pp

contested

24h volume

$44

thin orderbook

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

52 days

Venue

Polymarket

12 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAnthropic: 52% (3 days, 3 points)Anthropic: 52% on 2026-05-08Google: 34% (3 days, 3 points)Google: 34% on 2026-05-08OpenAI: 18% (3 days, 3 points)OpenAI: 18% on 2026-05-08
Anthropic52¢Google34¢OpenAI18¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

What moved the line

  • May 8Baidu6pp2418¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7xAI5pp49¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7Google4pp3632¢ · Polymarket
  • May 7OpenAI4pp2218¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in technology

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.