Bitcoin Surges 4.3% — Prediction Markets Shift Bullish on $80k Target

Today's crypto market action is driving significant prediction market flows. IBIT (Bitcoin ETF) posted a +4.29% gain and ETHE (Ethereum ETF) +3.93%, making crypto the strongest performing asset class today alongside energy stocks.

In prediction markets, the directional signal is clear. The 'Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?' contract (0xecd961f60dad9a8f4f) jumped +8¢ to 65¢ favoring the upside target — the largest move in any BTC directional market today. This is particularly meaningful because the contract resolves on which level is hit first, so the jump reflects genuine bullish momentum rather than just time decay.

Kalshi's daily BTC price markets confirm the action: KXBTCD-26APR0714-T68 shows 98¢ probability of BTC above $68k today, and the >$67k series shows even higher certainty. The KXBTCMAXMON series shows 60¢ probability of BTC averaging above $72,500 for the entire month of April — a monthly average target that would imply sustained strength.

Longer-dated markets show more spread in opinions. The Jan 1, 2027 BTC price year-end markets (KXBTCY series) show 6¢ probability across several $77k-$87k buckets, with total distribution suggesting the market median is around $70-80k for year-end. The Polymarket 'What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?' series shows 12¢ for $130k and 4¢ for $200k, implying significant upside optionality is priced.

Traders with a bullish view should look at the BTC max monthly mean contracts (KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26AP) where April $75k is at 36¢ and April $77.5k is at 23¢ — both offering asymmetric upside if the rally continues. The ETH markets (KXETHY series) are also worth monitoring as Ethereum outperformed today.