Bitcoin & Crypto Prediction Market Odds
Crypto sentiment surges as Trump speech and Warsh testimony odds jump
Active markets
12
Avg probability
37%
24h volume
$64K
Questions tracked
16
Key Moves
Expectations for pro-crypto political messaging nearly doubled overnight
Traders anticipate crypto becoming a focal point in Fed-related legislative hearings
Justin Thomas reclaimed slight favorite status in The Open Championship betting
Key Markets
Specific odds in this topic
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Analysis
Betting odds for pro-crypto rhetoric increased significantly over the last 24 hours, driven by upcoming political and regulatory events. Markets are pricing in a much higher probability of Donald Trump mentioning 'Bitcoin' and Kevin Warsh addressing crypto during his House Committee testimony.
What to watch: Watch the House Committee on Financial Services hearing today for Kevin Warsh's specific remarks on the Federal Reserve and digital assets.
Dispatches
Crypto Markets Show Bullish Bitcoin Positioning with Ethereum Outperformance
Crypto prediction markets show heightened activity and bullish positioning for Bitcoin's month-end price, with key contracts implying strong conviction above $65,000.
Bitcoin Markets Show Bullish Near-Term But Bearish Year-End Divergence
Bitcoin prediction markets show 74% probability of BTC above $65,000 by month-end, but year-end contracts indicate 62% chance of sub-$55,000 levels. ETH shows bearish divergence.
Bitcoin, Ethereum Surge: Traders Eye $200K 2027 Target in Renewed Crypto Rally
Bitcoin is on a tear, up 2.2% today to $34.77, with Ethereum surging 5.44%. This could signal a broader crypto rally with key price levels to watch in the prediction markets.
Bitcoin Holds Strong: ETF Up 2.2%, Markets Eye $65K for July
Bitcoin ETF is up 2.2% as prediction markets show a 58% chance (58¢) of BTC remaining above $65,000 by end of July. Year-end targets show a 13% chance of hitting $100,000.
Bitcoin Intraday Markets Surge as Spot Price Rebounds, Year-End Outlook Murky
Bitcoin spot price jumped 2.38% today, but prediction markets are divided on the year-end outlook. The 'BTC above $100k by Oct 1, 2026' contract is at just 5¢, while the 'BTC below $50k by Jan 1, 2027' trades at 58¢. Intraday price for Jul 3 shows heavy volume around the $62k-$79k range, with traders actively positioning for tomorrow's settlement.
Bitcoin ETFs Slide Amid Risk-Off Sentiment
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw significant drops, with IBIT down 2.67% and ETHE down 3.08%. Prediction markets are pricing in a high probability of Bitcoin staying below $75k by month-end, reflecting bearish short-term sentiment.
Bitcoin: June $75k at 5¢, $100k target dims; bearish $40k protection at 30¢
Bitcoin sentiment is cautious: June above $75k is at 5¢, $100k by July 2026 near 0. The 'BTC below $40k by 2027' at 30¢ is the most liquid bearish contract. Watch the June 30 max/min trim spreads.
Bitcoin Sentiment Sours: Market Paints a Bearish Picture for Q3 2026
Bitcoin is down 2.31% on the day (IBIT), and prediction markets now give a 72% probability that BTC will drop below $55,000 in 2026, up 2 points today. The odds of reclaiming $100,000 by July 1 are just 1%, a stark reversal of relatively recent bullish sentiment.
Bitcoin Sell-Off Deepens: Markets Price Sub-$50k Probability Above 50%
Bitcoin tumbled over 5%, dragging down IBIT and ETHE. Prediction markets now assign a 53% probability of BTC hitting $50k and a 39% chance of $45k by year-end. Risk-off sentiment dominates as traders flee crypto.
MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Probability Rockets 28¢
The market for MicroStrategy selling any Bitcoin by May 31 surged from 7¢ to 35¢, implying traders expect a significant sell-off. This could be a leading indicator for Bitcoin price weakness, as BTC price predictions show a 51¢ chance of dropping below $72,500.
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