Iran War Escalation: Ceasefire Markets Surge as Kharg Island Strike Risk Hits 46¢

Today marked one of the most active days in Iran prediction markets since the conflict began. The US x Iran ceasefire by April 30 contract (0x80059ff4e694f878c0) surged +10¢ to 35¢ on $1M+ volume, suggesting traders believe diplomatic activity is intensifying. Even more striking, the Iran leadership change by April 30 market (0xb412664463bbfe21be) posted the single largest move of any Iran contract today at +13¢ to 22¢ — a remarkable signal that regime instability is being priced more seriously.

For oil traders, the Kharg Island contracts deserve immediate attention. The 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30' market (0xa78ecba9c4273564cc) jumped +11¢ to 28¢, while the 'oil terminal hit by April 30' contract (0xc5675bc58c8117391c) now sits at 46¢ — near coin-flip odds. Kharg Island handles approximately 90% of Iranian oil exports, and a successful strike would immediately disrupt global supply.

The Strait of Hormuz normalization market (0x924a2942747dd75703) moved +7¢ to only 23¢ probability of normal traffic by April 30, confirming traders expect prolonged disruption. Kalshi's WTI settlement markets confirm oil is trading well above $113/barrel with the >$113.99 contract at 66¢.

Key contracts to watch: The April 15 ceasefire (0x773abaa5fe55e5cde5) at 20¢ with $2.1M volume is the near-term benchmark. The US invade Iran before 2027 market (0x5db999fad322cea291) at 60¢ remains the highest-conviction long-term conflict contract. Traders should monitor the KXHORMUZNORM Kalshi series for daily Hormuz traffic data that feeds directly into these resolution conditions.