Hormuz Still Open: Iran Blockade Risk Massively Overpriced

Kalshi prices KXHORMUZTRAFFIC at 1¢ for 30+ vessel transits by April 1 — implying near-certain blockade — while IMF PortWatch data shows traffic has not collapsed. The US military presence in the region makes a full Hormuz closure extremely unlikely before April 1. Buy YES on the 30-transit threshold for a near-certain resolution at 100¢.