US Warships Through Hormuz: 14¢ for a Near-Certainty

Polymarket prices only 14.5¢ for the US sending warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30. With Iran tension at a fever pitch and the US Navy's 5th Fleet permanently stationed in the region, this is an extraordinary underpricing — the US transits Hormuz routinely as a matter of policy. An 80+ cent edge makes this the clearest mispricing in the dataset.