Bearish Oil Bets Surge as Iran Optimism Grows
The probability of crude oil (WTI) falling below $75 by end of June has skyrocketed 47 points to 89¢, with a 37% chance of hitting below $70. This is a direct response to the increased optimism around an Iran nuclear deal, which could bring significant Iranian oil supply back to the market.
Key takeaways
- 01
The probability of crude oil (WTI) falling below $75 by end of June has skyrocketed 47 points to 89¢, with a 37% chance of hitting below $70.
- 02
This is a direct response to the increased optimism around an Iran nuclear deal, which could bring significant Iranian oil supply back to the market.
- 03
The prediction market for oil prices has flipped decisively bearish.
Full analysis
The prediction market for oil prices has flipped decisively bearish. The contract 'Will Crude Oil (CL) hit ↓ $75 by end of June?' (0x1b2a9f58aeca1de7fc) surged 47 points to 89¢ on strong volume of 30.5k. The move was immediately preceded by the sharp rise in the Iran enrichment deal market. The logic is straightforward: a successful diplomatic resolution with Iran, especially one that sees the end of enrichment, paves the way for the lifting of oil sanctions and a flood of new supply onto the global market. This comes even as the Strait of Hormuz contract (P | 0x348cd9adf4f6855f58) sits at 18¢ for a return to normal by end of June, suggesting traders are still hedging against ongoing disruption even as they price in a deal. The contract for WTI below $80 (P | 0xbaf252e7ac957d6636) is already at 100¢, indicating the market considers a drop below $80 as a near-certainty. The sheer speed of this repricing suggests a significant news catalyst or a consensus shift on the oil market's near-term outlook.
Related markets
Source markets at a glance
The contracts behind this dispatch — current price + 24h volume. Click any card for live orderbook data.
Zoom out
sf query "WTI June crude oil"