SimpleFunctions
19 source contracts·Kalshi 19·refreshed just now·Closes Oct 22, 2026 · 74d

Will Brent Rooker lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 19 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

9%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

9%

19 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$316

19 contracts

Closes

Oct 22, 2026

74 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 42% (19 days, 19 points)Aggregate: 42% on 2026-08-08
Aggregate of 19 contracts · 19d

Bracket families

19 clusters across 19 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Yordan Alvarez lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$311

Cluster 2

Will Shohei Ohtani lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$5

Cluster 3

Will Austin Riley lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 4

Will Byron Buxton lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 5

Will Bryce Harper lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Will Ben Rice lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 7

Will Brent Rooker lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 8

Will Bobby Witt Jr. lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 9

Will Corbin Carroll lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 10

Will Cal Raleigh lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 11

Will Corey Seager lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 12

Will Elly De La Cruz lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 13

Will Freddie Freeman lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 14

Will Francisco Lindor lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 15

Will Fernando Tatis Jr. lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 16

Will Gunnar Henderson lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 17

Will George Springer lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 18

Will Hunter Goodman lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 19

Will Junior Caminero lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Analysis

This market estimates a 9% chance that Brent Rooker finishes the 2026 MLB season with the highest OPS (On-base Plus Slugging), a comprehensive hitting metric combining batting average and power. The probability reflects Rooker competing against established elite hitters like James Wood (23%), Seiya Suzuki (24%), and Yordan Alvarez (20%), who command significantly higher odds. Rooker's relatively low probability suggests market participants view him as less likely to lead baseball in combined offensive production than these peers. The outcome will be determined once the 2026 regular season concludes in late September, when final statistics are compiled. Key variables include Rooker's sustained performance level throughout a full season, health status, lineup context, and whether he can maintain or improve upon recent production rates while competitors maintain or decline from their benchmarks.

  • Rooker's career-high OPS trajectory compared to Wood, Suzuki, and Alvarez's established elite-hitting baselines
  • Trading volume of $0-32 across competing contracts suggests modest market confidence in any single favorite, indicating genuine uncertainty
  • Rooker's opportunity for playing time and plate appearances relative to injured or underperforming periods during the 162-game season
  • Year-to-date 2026 performance through mid-July as a leading indicator of full-season trajectory and whether early trends will sustain
  • Head-to-head statistical gap between Rooker and the current frontrunners (Wood at 23%) requiring significant relative outperformance or regression from competitors

What moved the line

  • Aug 3Yordan Alvarez35pp5924¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 5Yordan Alvarez28pp5179¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 4Yordan Alvarez27pp2451¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 2Yordan Alvarez12pp7159¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 4Shohei Ohtani6pp28¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in oil

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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