Will Brent Rooker lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 15 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
8%
15 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
15 contracts
Closes
Oct 22, 2026
166 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
15 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Aaron Judge lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 2
Will Shohei Ohtani lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 3
Will Juan Soto lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 4
Will Yordan Alvarez lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 5
Will Nick Kurtz lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 6
Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 7
Will Corey Seager lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 8
Will Ketel Marte lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 9
Will Kyle Schwarber lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 10
Will Bryce Harper lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 11
Will Brent Rooker lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 12
Will Corbin Carroll lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 13
Will Junior Caminero lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 14
Will Freddie Freeman lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 15
Will Fernando Tatis Jr. lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Analysis
This probability reflects the market's assessment that Brent Rooker will finish the 2026 regular season with the highest OPS in Major League Baseball. At 7%, the market views this as unlikely but possible. Rooker's probability is substantially lower than Aaron Judge's (51%), reflecting Judge's established track record and higher profile. The key drivers are Rooker's historical offensive consistency, his age and development trajectory, and comparisons to other elite offensive players in baseball. The resolution will occur automatically when the 2026 regular season concludes in late September or early October, when final statistics are compiled. Between now and then, Rooker's month-to-month offensive performance and injuries to other top contenders will move this probability.
- ›Rooker's career OPS through May 2026 compared to historical leaders like Judge, Murakami, and Alvarez in similar timeframes
- ›Rooker's plate discipline metrics (strikeout rate, walk rate) relative to other high-OPS performers in the league
- ›Injury status of competing players, particularly Judge (51% contract), who currently leads the OPS markets
- ›Year-over-year improvement or decline in Rooker's slugging percentage and on-base percentage trend
- ›Full-season availability: Rooker's games played projection versus other candidates over the remaining ~150 games
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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