Will Brent Rooker lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$316
19 contracts
Closes
Oct 22, 2026
74 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
19 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Yordan Alvarez lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 2
Will Shohei Ohtani lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 3
Will Austin Riley lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 4
Will Byron Buxton lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 5
Will Bryce Harper lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 6
Will Ben Rice lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 7
Will Brent Rooker lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 8
Will Bobby Witt Jr. lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 9
Will Corbin Carroll lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 10
Will Cal Raleigh lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 11
Will Corey Seager lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 12
Will Elly De La Cruz lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 13
Will Freddie Freeman lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 14
Will Francisco Lindor lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 15
Will Fernando Tatis Jr. lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 16
Will Gunnar Henderson lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 17
Will George Springer lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 18
Will Hunter Goodman lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 19
Will Junior Caminero lead Pro Baseball in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) for the 2026 regular season
Analysis
This market estimates a 9% chance that Brent Rooker finishes the 2026 MLB season with the highest OPS (On-base Plus Slugging), a comprehensive hitting metric combining batting average and power. The probability reflects Rooker competing against established elite hitters like James Wood (23%), Seiya Suzuki (24%), and Yordan Alvarez (20%), who command significantly higher odds. Rooker's relatively low probability suggests market participants view him as less likely to lead baseball in combined offensive production than these peers. The outcome will be determined once the 2026 regular season concludes in late September, when final statistics are compiled. Key variables include Rooker's sustained performance level throughout a full season, health status, lineup context, and whether he can maintain or improve upon recent production rates while competitors maintain or decline from their benchmarks.
- ›Rooker's career-high OPS trajectory compared to Wood, Suzuki, and Alvarez's established elite-hitting baselines
- ›Trading volume of $0-32 across competing contracts suggests modest market confidence in any single favorite, indicating genuine uncertainty
- ›Rooker's opportunity for playing time and plate appearances relative to injured or underperforming periods during the 162-game season
- ›Year-to-date 2026 performance through mid-July as a leading indicator of full-season trajectory and whether early trends will sustain
- ›Head-to-head statistical gap between Rooker and the current frontrunners (Wood at 23%) requiring significant relative outperformance or regression from competitors
What moved the line
- Aug 3Yordan Alvarez↓35pp59→24¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Yordan Alvarez↑28pp51→79¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Yordan Alvarez↑27pp24→51¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2Yordan Alvarez↓12pp71→59¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Shohei Ohtani↑6pp2→8¢ · Kalshi
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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