Will average gas prices be above $6.40 by Dec 31, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This prediction asks whether the average U.S. gas price will exceed $6.40 per gallon by year-end 2026, with markets currently assigning a 34% probability to that outcome. The assessment reflects expectations that prices will remain below this threshold over the next six months. Key factors shaping this view include current price levels—typically $2.50–$3.50 per gallon in mid-2026—which would require a substantial spike to reach $6.40, and the seasonal dynamics of fuel markets heading into autumn and winter. Supply disruptions from geopolitical events, unexpected refinery outages, or sharp demand surges could drive prices higher, while inventory levels, OPEC production decisions, and global economic conditions work in the opposite direction. The contract distribution shows traders view higher brackets ($7.00, $6.00) as increasingly unlikely, with most probability mass concentrated in the $4.60–$4.80 range. Crude oil price movements and any major supply shocks over the next six months represent the primary catalysts that would materially shift these odds.

• ›Current average retail gas prices are approximately $2.50–$3.50 per gallon; reaching $6.40 requires a 100%+ increase in less than six months
• ›Historical price spikes above $5.00 are typically triggered by major supply disruptions (war, refinery failures, hurricane damage) or rapid demand shocks
• ›Seasonal trends show gas prices often decline into fall/winter as demand softens, working against the $6.40 threshold
• ›Crude oil futures and OPEC production guidance for Q3-Q4 2026 will be primary drivers of market expectations
• ›The contract price distribution shows $4.60–$4.80 as the central probability mass, with only 4¢ on the dollar assigned to $7.00+ outcomes

What moved the line

• Jul 22Above $4.60↑5pp47→52¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 17Above $4.60↑4pp43→47¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 20Above $4.60↓4pp51→47¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 20Above $4.80↑4pp38→42¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 21Above $4.80↓4pp42→38¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds