Will average gas prices be above $6.40 by Dec 31, 2026
Leader sits at 57% across 13 bound outcomes, runner-up at 44%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $4.60
Outcomes
13
winner-take-all
Runner-up
44¢
Above $4.80
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
206 days
Venue
Kalshi
13 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
will average gas prices be above $
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.60 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $4.60
KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-4.60
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $4.80
KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-4.80
Will average **gas prices** be above $5.00 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.00
KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-5.00
Will average **gas prices** be above $7.00 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $7.00
KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-7.00
Will average **gas prices** be above $5.40 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.40
KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-5.40
Will average **gas prices** be above $6.80 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $6.80
KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-6.80
Will average **gas prices** be above $5.60 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.60
KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-5.60
Will average **gas prices** be above $5.20 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.20
KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-5.20
Will average **gas prices** be above $5.80 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $5.80
KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-5.80
Will average **gas prices** be above $6.60 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $6.60
KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-6.60
Will average **gas prices** be above $6.40 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $6.40
KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-6.40
Will average **gas prices** be above $6.20 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $6.20
KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-6.20
Will average **gas prices** be above $6.00 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $6.00
KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-6.00
Analysis
The prediction market is pricing a 96% likelihood that U.S. average gasoline prices will exceed $4.44 per gallon by year-end 2026. This high probability reflects current market conditions and expectations about crude oil supply, refinery capacity, and demand through December. The assessment hinges on whether OPEC production decisions, global crude supplies, and domestic fuel consumption remain stable or shift materially. Prices above $4.44 would require sustained demand or constrained supply; prices below would suggest either increased production or demand destruction. The outcome resolves when the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes final average retail gasoline prices for 2026, making this a backward-looking measure rather than a forward prediction of price direction.
- ›Current U.S. average gasoline price and trend from May 2026 through December, as reported by EIA
- ›OPEC production levels and announced policy changes affecting global crude oil supply
- ›Refinery utilization rates and unplanned outages that constrain fuel output
- ›Seasonal demand patterns and economic activity indicators affecting consumption from June through year-end
- ›Geopolitical events or supply disruptions that could significantly alter crude availability
What moved the line
- Jun 3Above $4.80↑12pp39→51¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Above $4.80↓8pp51→43¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 3Above $5.00↑6pp29→35¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 3Above $4.60↑5pp56→61¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5Above $4.60↓5pp57→52¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in oil
- Where are oil prices heading?last 18% · 1d
- Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 85.00 and 85.99 on Apr 24, 2026$96.00 to $96.99last 38% · 2d
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 85.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDTabove $91.99last 97% · 2d
- What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $110last 49% · 5d
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.920last 85% · 6d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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