Oil Hits $115 'Near Certain' by June as Iran Conflict Disrupts Supply

Oil prediction markets are repricing sharply upward today in direct response to Iran conflict escalation. The most dramatic moves are in the June crude oil contracts: $115 by June end (0x46f19d5bedd6d601d5) jumped +9¢ to 92¢ on nearly $20,000 volume, while $120 by June (0xba8af64c1b08f322ca) rose +10¢ to 85¢, and $130 by June (0xa5d0dfc81e6a87faa7) gained +2¢ to 56¢. The $150 target (0xeda0e0633f131b761c) sits at 28¢ (+1¢) and $200 at 10¢.

Kalshi's same-day WTI settlement markets confirm the range: Apr 7 above $104.99 at 95¢, above $113.99 at 62¢, above $117.99 at 31¢, and above $118.99 at 18¢. The KXWTIMAX annual maximum markets show $115 max by Dec 31 at 92¢ and $150 max at 48¢.

The supply disruption drivers are multi-pronged: Hormuz traffic normalization by end of April (0x924a2942747dd75703) sits at just 16¢, Kharg Island terminal hit by April 15 at 25¢ (+2¢) and by April 30 at 39¢ (+1¢), and Bab el-Mandeb strait closure by April 30 rose +5¢ to 28¢. Khalij Island control loss by May 31 is at 22¢ (-6¢) but the monthly tracking shows persistence.

US crude oil reserves falling to 375M barrels by May 1 (0x3f817e85bcd3e56fe4) dropped -3¢ to 17¢, suggesting the market doesn't yet expect a full reserve drawdown emergency, but the directional pressure is clearly bullish oil.

For traders: KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T15 (will max WTI reach $150 by Dec 31) at 48¢ offers the best risk/reward for a persistent Iran-driven oil shock thesis. The near-term KXWTI April 7 contracts are already pricing most of the known risk. The $115-$130 June range appears to be consensus.