Gas Prices Below $4.26 by Sunday — Fade the Oil Panic

Despite crude oil surging 12%, US average gas prices at Kalshi's $4.26 threshold are priced at 50¢ — a coin flip — for this Sunday's reading. Current AAA national average sits well below $4.00, and even a sharp crude spike takes 2-3 weeks to flow through to retail pump prices. The market is conflating spot oil moves with near-term retail gas pricing. Strong buy NO on all $4.17-$4.26 thresholds.