Gas Prices at $4.17+ by April 6 Mispriced at Only 50¢

Current national average gas prices sit well below $4.17 with oil's 12% surge just beginning to flow through to retail. The edge data shows the market's implied probability is only 18-22% despite the oil shock, yet Kalshi is pricing these outcomes at 50¢. The thesis-implied probability of 20% means the NO side of this bet is dramatically underpriced. Sell YES (buy NO) on these gas price thresholds.