Zero Fed Cuts in 2026 Is the New Consensus — Position Now

Markets now price 37% odds of zero rate cuts in 2026, making it the single most likely outcome after a dramatic hawkish repricing. The April FOMC hold is 98% locked, and persistent geopolitical inflation from an Iran oil shock only reinforces the higher-for-longer narrative. The market is finally aligning with Fed rhetoric but may still be underpricing the hawkish tail given current oil dynamics.