Will Mirra Andreeva win the Andreeva vs Ferro

The curve presents a flat structure across all 128 constituent markets, with every contract sharing a uniform 15-day tenor to resolution on May 26, 2024. Within this single tenor bucket, YES probabilities display substantial dispersion rather than a traditional yield curve shape. Probabilities range from a floor of 4.0% (BIRPEG-BIR) to a ceiling of 95.0% (BIRPEG-PEG), with a median clustering around 60-70% across most matchups. The absence of multiple tenor points prevents traditional curve analysis, but the data reveals that the cheapest YES probabilities concentrate in the 4-12% range across several markets (BIRPEG-BIR at 4%, RAKANI-RAK at 5%, MARMER-MAR at 6%, JOIPOT-JOI at 12%, GAUTOW-TOW at 12%), while the most expensive cluster around 93-95% (MARMER-MER, RAKANI-ANI, SABBOU-SAB, BIRPEG-PEG). The flat tenor structure indicates the market views all resolution uncertainty as concentrated within a single 15-day window, with no term premium or decay pattern to observe. The wide probability dispersion across simultaneous contracts reflects high confidence in specific match outcomes rather than temporal uncertainty about when events occur. Markets pricing YES at 93-95% express near-certainty in particular outcomes, while those at 4-6% represent heavy favorites in opposing matchups. This structure suggests participants view the May 26 resolution date as fixed and certain, with disagreement focused entirely on which participant in each matchup will prevail, not whether outcomes will be determined by that date.