Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 27¢ reflects a heavily Republican-favored district, with the No side offering a more modest 68.2% implied yield versus the Yes side's extreme 498.2% return, suggesting asymmetric risk pricing typical of deep underdog positions. Volume is exceptionally thin at just $45.81 in 24 hours against $11.9M open interest, indicating low liquidity that could amplify price swings on modest order flow. With 198 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the market appears fairly settled, though the 3¢ spread and modest cliff risk index (3) suggest stable conditions for a district where Republicans hold structural advantages.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade