When will AppsFlyer IPO?
Prediction markets currently give a 30% probability that When will AppsFlyer IPO?. This contract trades at 30¢ on Kalshi, closing April 1, 2027. This illiquid market with zero volume and open interest shows a sharp 9-cent spread around a 30-cent price, implying only a 30% probability of AppsFlyer IPO by April 2027.
Analysis
This illiquid market with zero volume and open interest shows a sharp 9-cent spread around a 30-cent price, implying only a 30% probability of AppsFlyer IPO by April 2027. The asymmetric implied yields—393% for Yes versus 28% for No—reflect extreme uncertainty typical of thin markets, though the recent price decline from 23¢ to 21¢ suggests modest bearish sentiment over the past week. With 349 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 4, this market lacks sufficient liquidity to be a reliable pricing mechanism.
Resolution rules
If AppsFlyer confirms an IPO before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPOAPPSFLYER-27APR01 yes 100