What Price Will Ethereum Hit Before
event base · what-price-will-ethereum-hit-before
Outcome probabilities
14 contracts at one resolution date
Analysis
The What Price Will Ethereum Hit Before slate has 14 mutually-exclusive contracts, all resolving on a single date. The current top-probability outcome is ↓ 1,500 at 48.0%.
A bespoke narrative analysis is generated by an LLM on a 24h cron. If this paragraph is showing instead, the slate has either just appeared in the index or has not yet been queued.
Constituent markets
14 polymarket contracts
| Market | Tenor | P(YES) | Vol 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500 | 20mo | 48.0% | $447 |
| What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 3,500 | 20mo | 27.0% | $3.6K |
| What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,000 | 20mo | 23.0% | $7.3K |
| What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 800 | 20mo | 16.0% | $157 |
| What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 4,000 | 20mo | 14.0% | $3.0K |
| What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 4,500 | 20mo | 12.0% | $26 |
| What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 5,000 | 20mo | 8.0% | $22 |
| What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 5,500 | 20mo | 7.0% | $812 |
| What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 6,000 | 20mo | 6.0% | $585 |
| What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 6,500 | 20mo | 5.0% | $349 |
| What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 7,000 | 20mo | 4.0% | $13 |
| What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 7,500 | 20mo | 4.0% | $484 |
| What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 8,000 | 20mo | 4.0% | $4.5K |
| What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 10,000 | 20mo | 3.0% | $6.7K |
Related event families
How to read this page
An outcome slate is a set of mutually-exclusive contracts that all settle on the same date. Their YES probabilities form a distribution over which outcome the market expects. Probabilities should roughly sum to 100% minus the venue’s overround.
Curve construction: each constituent contract is identified by its venue event_id (what-price-will-ethereum-hit-before on polymarket). Tenor is computed from the contract’s close_time minus snapshot time, rounded to days. We do not interpolate between tenors — every plotted point is a real, traded contract. Outcome-slate pages show price-as-probability for mutually-exclusive contracts; term-structure pages show price-as-probability vs days-to-resolution for the same underlying event.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.