Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?

The "Yes" position offers an extreme 602.9% implied yield over 258 days, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the ~27% probability shift observed in the past week (from 26¢ to 19¢), though this may reflect rational repricing as Ethereum has strengthened recently. With $54K open interest against only $26K daily volume, liquidity is moderate and the tight 1¢ spread indicates reasonable market efficiency, but the cliff risk index of 4 suggests meaningful tail risk around the November 2025 observation window start date. The absence of a Kalshi cross-venue price creates an arbitrage blind spot that prevents confidence in whether this 19¢ level represents true market consensus or Polymarket-specific mispricing.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

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