US Escorts Commercial Ship Through Hormuz: 15¢ for 90%+ Odds

Polymarket offers 15.5¢ for the US escorting a commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30. With Iran invasion odds at 55%, geopolitical tension spiking, and the US Navy actively operating in the region, escort missions are the standard playbook. Historical precedent from 2019 tanker crises puts this near-certain in elevated threat environments. Cross-referencing Kalshi traffic markets confirms Hormuz is still open.