US Warships Through Hormuz by April 30 — Wildly Underpriced at 12¢

Polymarket prices US warships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 at just 12.5 cents, while simultaneously pricing a 60% chance of US military action against Iran before 2027 and heavy Hormuz traffic disruption. The US Navy's standard freedom-of-navigation posture alone makes sub-15% implausible — the fleet regularly transits. With Iran tensions at a fever pitch, this is a near-certainty being priced as a long shot.