HIGH·BUY NO·geopoliticsApr 6, 2026
Hormuz Weekly Traffic Above 25 Ships — Sell the Blockade Fantasy
Kalshi prices the 7-day moving average of Hormuz vessel transits falling BELOW 25 by April 7 at 93 cents (i.e., market implies 93% chance traffic collapses). IMF PortWatch data shows normal Hormuz throughput of 40-50 transits daily — getting below 25 would require an active, enforced blockade that hasn't happened. Buy NO on KXHORMUZTRAFFICW-26APR07-T25 to fade the panic pricing.
edge81¢
horizon1w
directionBUY NO
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Catalyst
IMF PortWatch publishes daily vessel data; any week without a physical blockade resolves YES on traffic above 25
Risk
Iran physically mines or blocks the strait before April 7, causing actual traffic collapse and a YES resolution
Referenced Markets
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