US Warships Through Hormuz by April 30 Is a Screaming Buy at 12¢

Polymarket prices a US naval escort through Hormuz at just 12.5¢ while the broader Iran invasion market sits at 55¢. The US already has carrier strike groups in the region, and with Iran tensions at multi-year highs, an escort or transit operation by month-end is highly probable. The cross-market divergence between 55¢ invasion odds and 12.5¢ warship transit odds implies extreme mispricing — buy both the Polymarket warship market and the Kalshi escort market.