Tom Homan Exit Odds Crashed Too Far — Buy the Dip

Homan's departure odds dropped 14 cents to 37% — but this looks like an overreaction to a single news cycle defending him. The structural case remains: Homan is the most controversial figure in the administration, faces ongoing congressional pressure, and historical base rates for high-profile Trump officials surviving through 2026 are poor. At 37% this is cheap for someone with his political exposure. This is the contrarian play — fade the momentum drop.