Hormuz Traffic Above 30 Vessels Is Collapsing — Short Now at 0.5¢

Kalshi's Hormuz traffic market shows vessels above 30 priced at just 0.5¢ — yet the thesis implies 85% probability of disruption bringing traffic below that threshold. With oil spiking 12% and Iran invasion odds at 55¢, the strait is clearly under threat. Meanwhile the 'above 3 vessels' market at 95.5¢ is also a strong sell — any blockade scenario kills both. The model shows 80+ cents of edge on the NO side for traffic markets.