Zero Fed Cuts in 2026 Is Underpriced as Stagflation Risk Mounts

The market prices 36% chance of zero Fed cuts in 2026 — but with oil surging 12% in a single day, 100% probability of inflation above 3%, and the S&P flat, stagflation is the base case now, not a tail risk. The Fed can't cut into a supply shock, and rate cut expectations should compress further. Buy NO on any near-term cut markets and lean into the 'rates stay elevated' thesis via SOFR and Kalshi rate markets.