Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez before 2027?
0x0146bc6b56b60b7451fe1aa786f0f795390ba3fd2d454b005925fac454c2f831 · closes Dec 31, 2026 · 260 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 737.5% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 26.8% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 5 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 3.9% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 3645% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 25.70 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 7.3/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 738% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
1127 indicator snapshots · 1 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
How to trade
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