Bob Menendez · Who will Trump pardon before 2027
Bob Menendez is priced at 40¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 5¢ bid, 76¢ ask, 71¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside Who will Trump pardon before 2027?.
Price history
40¢ current
+9¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome
Bob Menendez
Rank
#1 of 16
Leader
Bob Menendez 40¢
Range
4¢-40¢
Family volume
$271K
Identifier
0x0146bc6b...f831
Jun 13, 2026, 8:08 PM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
76¢
Spread
71¢
Reported volume
$157
Family rank
#1 of 16
16 outcomes · Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$271K
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 76¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x0146bc6b…f831
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 7¢, +33¢ versus this page.
Event family
Who will Trump pardon before 2027.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$271K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Bob Menendez 40¢
Current share
0%
Bob Menendez
polymarket · 0x0146bc6b56b60b7451fe1aa786f0f795390ba3fd2d454b005925fac454c2f831
Keonne Rodriguez
polymarket · 0x54701be7ec2f8ae91308ef7ca1e28720f74664e3d3dc446ceef76e86a785e579
Steve Bannon
polymarket · 0x4a869db910b4f8e3dc8e4b562889939b2ad272c8cef5914eadeb12fb6b979ad2
Ryan Salame
polymarket · 0xbde10fc985687f35034b62df6cd50adbe835dcf08a36a93c4c695ed75777e32c
Sam Bankman-Fried
polymarket · 0x2c41ac56695e28bd7bca361bffde6977e6211406e19fb26ec98037661f23c35f
Hunter Biden
polymarket · 0xcd4a8e578de8204cf31c57e509e507c81462b10ef0840d0495c737bd047edabb
Ghislaine Maxwell
polymarket · 0xef145ca5ba752b022f71b4d1f7abeb6c311cd537c0d1e64f3682ca90b2412dbf
Martin Shkreli
polymarket · 0xe243748396163f096042bb0c7ea137a864f5259b9b906ce1656ec8d4bd3c64d0
Diddy
polymarket · 0xe16cd141288e4f14414608210a92225704d5d0a90ef79fd732b83af5c47623e4
Nicolas Maduro
polymarket · 0x1b53ad65dae4809d3d1097bbcd6be1f44ba5cddd47be9ce21896722c7d79681a
Young Thug
polymarket · 0xaf3f06b4f26051357aa7086b5e58ef3d56a600a2da3122b3f8458077b80efec7
Edward Snowden
polymarket · 0x07d4883660832eb7b64be2f4dba5870eb3ff4ae764e79893d6f574eaa075f7cf
Derek Chauvin
polymarket · 0x354d0b717b2f83b620f34be00890b6dd4e93a9b7c7ad71d435db77eff868b91c
Do Kwon
polymarket · 0xe3756fe9c41dd786bac8d5092c783e02463f5d5de99285f1f5d0fd47df02f76a
Himself
polymarket · 0x6bc658b5fdfded234356308d971d7b93e2e92c48eff32144bc163b4a3da7277b
Elon Musk
polymarket · 0x63c7e65d0324c084b74b62f5c9109bd0b02570c6833cde0b959c911b6eb6be8b
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.477
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome
When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.
Gavin Newsom December 2025: How California’s Governor Is Shaping the 2028 Presidential Odds
In-depth look at Gavin Newsom’s status in December 2025, his California record, and what prediction markets are signaling about his 2028 presidential chances.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 40% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.