Will Elly De La Cruz win the 2026 National League MVP Award?

This market shows a significant cross-venue arbitrage opportunity, with Polymarket pricing De La Cruz at 6¢ versus Kalshi at 3¢—a 100% price discrepancy that suggests mispricing on one platform. The 2714.2% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high but reflects the extremely low probability and illiquidity, evidenced by zero 24-hour volume despite $885k open interest and a wide 9¢ spread. With 211 days to expiration and a neutral regime, the market appears thinly traded and potentially stale, making the Polymarket price vulnerable to correction downward toward the Kalshi level.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Most Valuable Player Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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