Will Pat Hahn win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary election?

Pat Hahn is priced at an extremely depressed 5¢ with virtually no 24-hour volume despite $14K in open interest, suggesting this is a low-liquidity, potentially illiquid position where the Yes side offers a stratospheric 10,358% implied yield—a red flag indicating either severe mispricing or near-zero conviction from market participants. With 67 days to the June 2026 primary and a wide 3¢ spread, the market appears to be pricing Hahn as a negligible candidate, though the astronomical yield differential warrants caution about whether this reflects genuine consensus or simply reflects the difficulty in trading such a thin market. The neutral regime score and flat price action suggest minimal new information flow, making this a speculative position rather than an actively discovered market price.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of New York, scheduled to take place on June 23, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 New York Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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