Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3,365% implied yield on the "Yes" side, suggesting Santos is dramatically undervalued at 6¢ or the market is pricing in near-zero probability despite him being a legitimate candidate. The massive volatility (1,398% realized) and high cliff risk index (16) indicate sharp price swings are common, while the zero spread and $168k open interest suggest reasonable liquidity despite the tiny position size. With 170 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be a speculative long-shot bet where either Santos's actual viability is being severely discounted or the market is correctly identifying him as an extreme longshot in a crowded field.

Resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade