Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?

The market is pricing in a heavily favored Republican outcome at 84%, but the extreme 955% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction—this is reinforced by zero 24-hour volume despite $15.8M in open interest. The massive discrepancy between the 34.6% yield on the favored side and the 955% on the underdog suggests the market structure is distorted, likely due to a small number of large positions that haven't been challenged, making this less reliable than the headline probability would suggest. With 201 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 5, there's meaningful time for new information to reshape the market, but traders should be cautious given the liquidity constraints.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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