What is the current probability for "Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 6¢ (6% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on October 4, 2026. 165 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3466.4% and 14.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Polymarket, closing October 4, 2026.

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6¢

Bid/Ask 6/6¢·Spread 0¢·Vol $81,434.16·OI $81,229.061·Closes Oct 4, 2026·165d remaining

0x054725b2a7971376f7924a7021221b12acc50fe78d97817824fe411704d5b5a2

7-day price122 snapshots · 130 regime

6¢6¢ current

Apr 101¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3466.4%

IY (No) 14.1%

Adj IY 1733%

CRI 16

Overround -0.1%

LAS 0.00

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3466.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	14.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1733%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	16	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.00	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/22/2026, 1:00:32 AM

Depth change (1h) +0.0%

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:53:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x054725b2a7971376f7924a7021221b12acc50fe78d97817824fe411704d5b5a2 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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