Will the Republican Party win the SC-01 House seat?

The Republican contract is pricing SC-01 at a dominant 76% win probability with minimal liquidity ($0 in 24h volume) and a tight 1¢ spread, suggesting strong consensus but limited price discovery. The No side exhibits an extreme 576% implied yield versus just 57.4% for Yes, indicating severe mispricing or that contrarian bettors are demanding substantial compensation for the tail risk of a Democratic upset in this Republican-leaning district. With 201 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 3, this market remains relatively stable but worth monitoring for any significant polling shifts or candidate developments that could trigger repricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade