Will the Republican Party win the WA-08 House seat?

WA-08 Republican odds have collapsed from 17¢ to 9¢ over seven days, suggesting significant new information favoring Democrats in this district, though zero 24-hour volume raises questions about price discovery. The extreme 1836% implied yield on the Yes side combined with a massive 15¢ spread and high realized volatility (1179%) indicates this is an illiquid, speculative position where the 9¢ price may not reflect true probability. With 201 days until resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 10, this market remains highly uncertain and prone to sharp repricing as the 2026 election approaches.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

Trade